Has there been a resurgence of whooping cough?
There are many scientific papers that discuss “The recent resurgence of pertussis (whooping cough)”. They are talking about the time from about 1985 to 2005 when the incidence in developed countries seemed to drop to very low levels and then pick up again without a clear reason. The explanation was put down to a change to a purified vaccine. There are theoretical reasons for thinking this could be the case, but in my view most of the apparent increase is the result of better diagnosis as a result of modern accurate and easy ways of testing for it.
I do not believe there has been a significant resurgence. My evidence is strongest in the graph below that was published as a letter in the British Medical Journal in 2006. I discusss it further lower down this page. I am not aware of anyone who has challenged my findings. Although I retired in 2011 and have no more data after 2013, I have no reason to think subsequent years were different until 2020 when Covid precautions caused a massive drop.
There is more information on the Keyworth Study page.
This takes you to the sound of whooping cough page
The image below is my reply to a BMJ paper by Professor Anthony Harnden which showed that pertussis was more common than believed, especially in young adults.I pointed out, with the aid of the graph from my Keyworth study, that I had not recorded a drop in the number of cases, unlike the rest of the country.
Some countries have noticed a resurgence in whooping cough cases since about 2005 and especially 2011-12.
Included are the USA, Australia, New Zealand and the UK.
Denmark has not seen a resurgence (although currently seems to be suffering outbreaks. October 2019), neither have countries that have continued to use whole cell vaccine.
Many people including myself think that most, if not all, of the increase results from better awareness. This website for instance had been helping people understand whooping cough since 2000.
The belief that there has been a resurgence has been repeated so many times that it is becoming accepted as true, partly because blaming acellular vaccine seems so logical, but I think the truth is quite different. Better diagnostic and recording techniques are what I believe to be responsible in the most part.
Confirmation by blood or oral fluid testing or PCR testing became popular at the same time as the supposed resurgence in the mid noughties.
Before the resurgence diagnosis mainly depended on a doctor confirming it. Most did not have the knowledge to do so, or thought it was not necessary to notify unless confirmed. After this time a simple test from the lab was all that was required.
Blamed for the resurgence has been acellular vaccine used by all the above countries for roughly 20 years.
Acellular vaccine is not as long lasting and may allow it to spread more easily.
The jury is still out on whether there are significantly more cases now. It is likely that it was always there but nobody was counting properly.
In more recent times (since 2020 approximately) new papers on pertussis frequently attribute the increased recording to either, increased awareness, better diagnosis by testing or less effective vaccine, which reflects the issues more accurately.
This page has been reviewed and updated on 1 February 2024